Compare ISAs
RSS | Comments RSS

Archive for January, 2010

Best ISA | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

An Increasing Trend In Lending

Comments (0)
January 30, 2010 at 5:27 pm

The reasons for mortgages or loans are because of the high spending rate of the people in USA. According to the news agency USA TODAY there seems to be a reduction in the saving rate of the people. The cash flow, which is quite slow, is one of the reasons and increase in the spending habit of the people. Another reason is that people having been borrowing against their assets But the biggest reason for our poor savings rate is that people have been borrowing against assets mainly their homes to get their hands on spending money. The median price of a home rose 24.5% from 2001 through 2004. The real boom period was 2005: The median home price half cost more, half cost less soared to $206,600 from $184,100 in 2004. Due to reasons and to tap the potential there has been an increase in the number of Lenders in the last few years.

The reasons of increase in the spending habit of the people is because of more gadgets and more luxury in order to get into more luxury people are using all their money into gadgets which ensures luxury. Increase in awareness and trying to ape the rich i.e. trying to get costlier clothing and accessories to feel good. The spending of the people is not in accordance with the income that they earn but is also eating into their savings. In a recent study it has been found that many people havent saved for their rainy day. There is very less or no emergency fund among people. The people who have retired have found that they have no fund to spend rest of their lives. The savings rate has drastically come down.

As said above to lay their hands on spending money, for emergencies, for building a house (without enough finance in hand) and for education that the there has been an increase in need to borrow money and hence increase in the lenders. Though reasons like building a house or education loan is quite understandable in nature and is also repayable within the fixed period of time. It is only the increase in the loan for emergencies and spending money that is worrying a lot of economist. This increase can only be tackled when the people learn to live within their income.

Best ISA | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Annuities

Comments (0)
January 26, 2010 at 8:10 am

Those with fixed incomes or living on their retirement savings are often looking for a safe, low risk place to invest their money. They will often turn to annuities, which are sold through insurance companies. Basically, an annuity is a contract between you and the insurance company that provided for tax-deferred earnings.

There are a number of insurance guarantees that come with annuities, including the option to “annuitize,” or turn the principal into a lifetime stream of income. However, the fees are often quite high, and the earnings are taxed as ordinary income, not long-term capital gain.

The FDIC does not insure annuities, even if they are sold through a bank. The safety of your principal depends on the financial strength of the annuity provider. If the company fails, you might have $100,000 of coverage by your state’s guaranty association. But these associations operate under state law, and vary on what they cover and how much they pay.

Fixed-rate annuities

With a fixed-rate annuity, you pay the insurance company a certain amount of money. The insurance company then guarantees you a certain periodic payment for the life of the annuity. This is often a way to se up a lifetime stream of income. The insurance company’s goal is to invest your deposit and make more money than they have promised to pay you.

There are often higher interest rates on annuities than on CDs. But fixed-rate doesn’t mean the same thing for annuities as it does for a CD. With a CD, the rate is fixed for the full term of the CD. Fixed-rate annuities do not have a maturity date. The rate is usually only guaranteed for the first year. The rate will then drop after the guaranteed period, and then be adjusted annually.

There may be penalties charged if you withdraw money during the penalty period. You may have to pay an 8% penalty if you withdraw money during the first year. After that, the penalty is usually decreased by 1% each year.

Annuities have tax-deferred features, so if you withdraw money before the age of 59 , you may have to pay a hefty 10% penalty to the IRS. The earnings on annuities are taxed as ordinary income by the IRS no matter how long you have invested.

Variable annuities

Variable annuities offer investors unique features, but they are quite complicated. They combine the elements of life insurance, mutual funds and tax-deferred savings planes. When you invest in a variable annuity, you select from a list of mutual funds to place your investment dollars. Your options may include balanced mutual funds, money market funds and several international funds.

Variable annuities have tax-deferred benefits, and they have income guarantees that you don’t find in other investments. For example, for a fee, your variable annuity will pay a death benefit.

Let’s look at how this works. You invest $100,000 in a variable annuity. In a few years, the value of the mutual funds in your account has fallen to $75,000. If this was a straight mutual fund, your heirs would only receive the $75,000. With this annuity, your beneficiaries are guaranteed the $100,000 if you pass away. If you have opted for the death benefits, the market value of the annuity may be as much as $125,000. Your beneficiaries would receive this amount.

Taxes are imposed in the same manner as for fixed-rate annuities. The earnings are taxed as ordinary income. You do not want to use the annuities inside of your 401(k) or IRA. These plans are built for accumulating money on a tax-deferred basis. You don’t want to pay the higher costs of an annuity when you can invest in a mutual fund that benefits you at less tax expense.

There are instances when variables are a good fit. If you’ve already reached the limit on your other retirement savings vehicles, you might look into a variable annuity. You aren’t limited in the amount you can invest in an annuity. Many allow you to convert your investment to an annual income stream, for a slight fee. The insurance company will guarantee that you will receive income payments for a certain period or for life.

CD-type annuities

A CD annuity is a fixed-rate annuity with a guaranteed rate that matches the penalty period. For example, you buy a five year CD annuity at 4%. If you hold the CD for five years then you will receive the 4% annually. If rates rise, you are already locked in at the lower rate.

Insurance companies developed CD annuities to help prevent insurers from making empty promises to continue to pay a high interest rate after the guaranteed period. Rates were falling, and customers were not getting what they expected. Customers began to pay a penalty to get out of the investment.

There are usually higher interest rates offered on CD annuities than on traditional CDs. The investment is tax-deferred, but if you cash out your five-year CD before the age of 59 , you will pay a 10% penalty on the gain to the IRS. Many contracts will allow you to take up to 10% of the balance or up to 100% of the interest annually without any insurance company penalties charged.

The surrender charges for a CD-type annuity are similar to those of fixed-rate annuities. There is no FDIC coverage on the investment. Some CD annuities have escape clauses in which the company penalty is waived if the customer allows the payments to be made over a five-year period or longer.

Best ISA | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

An Analysis Of Journal Communications (JRN)

Comments (0)
January 14, 2010 at 5:08 pm

Journal Communications (JRN) is comprised of seven essentially separate businesses: The Milwaukee Sentinel, Community Newspapers, Television Stations, Radio Stations, Telecommunications, Printing Services, and Direct Marketing. The companys five reportable segments do not exactly match these seven businesses; however, I believe an investor should analyze JRN on the basis of these seven businesses and their constituent properties, rather than as a single going concern with five reportable business segments. Additional reasons for this belief will be outlined below. For now, it is sufficient to say that if Journal Communications were to divide into seven separate public companies, the combined market value of those companies would be substantially greater than JRNs current enterprise value. Simply put, the sum of the parts would be valued more highly than the whole.

Journal Communications has an enterprise value of just under $1 billion. Pre-tax owners earnings are probably around $125 million. So, JRN trades at eight times pre-tax owners earnings. Thats cheap.

Journals effective tax rate is 40%. That is an unusually high rate. Journals media properties would likely generate more after-tax income under different ownership. The difference would be material; but, for anyone other than a highly leveraged buyer, tax savings would not be a primary consideration. When evaluating Journal as a going concern, it is perfectly appropriate to treat the full 40% tax burden as a reality. These taxes reduce owners earnings by $50 million.

With after-tax owners earnings of $75 million and an enterprise value of $1 billion, Journals owners earnings yield is 7.5%. Remember, this is the after-tax yield. The pre-tax yield is 12.5%. When evaluating a company, its best to use the pre-tax yield for purposes of comparison. Last I checked, the 30 year Treasury bond was yielding 4.63%. So, looking at JRNs current earnings alone, the stock appears to offer a large margin of safety.

This is especially true if you consider the fact that earnings yields offer more protection against inflation than bond yields. They dont offer perfect protection. But, with stocks, there is at least the possibility that nominal cash flows will increase along with inflation. The cash flows generated by bonds are fixed in nominal terms, and therefore offer no protection against inflation.

When evaluating a long-term investment, such as a stock, I do not use a discount rate of less than 8%. This reduces JRNs margin of safety considerably. Instead of being the difference between 12.5% and 4.63%, Journals margin of safety is the difference between 12.5% and 8%. Is such a margin of safety sufficient? Maybe.

When evaluating a prospective investment, I first look at the risk of a catastrophic loss. What is the magnitude? And what is the probability? For my purposes, a catastrophic loss is defined as any permanent loss of principal. The risk that Ive overvalued a business is always greater than my risk of catastrophic loss, because I insist upon a margin of safety. A catastrophic loss is one that wipes out the entire margin of safety.

I can make a bad investment without suffering a catastrophic loss. For instance, most mutual funds are bad investments, because they underperform alternatives. However, mutual funds do not usually carry a high risk of catastrophic loss. In fact, they generally have a low risk of catastrophic loss, because they are highly correlated to the overall market.

Its easiest to understand this concept if you think of valuing companies as being a lot like writing insurance. Even if reality exceeds your expectations in nine out of every ten cases, a terrible misjudgment in the tenth case can cause you great harm. It isnt just how many mistake you make. Its also how big they are.

Some stocks, like Google (GOOG), trade at prices that allow for catastrophic losses of considerable magnitude. Other stocks, like Journal Communications, trade at prices that only allow for very small losses to principal. However, there is also the matter of probability. How likely is it that a Google shareholder will suffer a catastrophic loss? I dont know. Im not even willing to hazard a guess.

In the case of Journal Communications, I am willing to stick my neck out.

I believe an investment in JRN carries a very low risk to principal considerably less than, say, an investment in the S&P 500. Why? Because Journal Communications is trading at a very modest owners earnings multiple. But, that isnt the only reason. You shouldnt look at Journal solely from a going concern perspective. JRN mainly consists of readily saleable properties. The assets backing shares JRN are quite substantial:

Publishing

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Milwaukees only major daily and Sunday newspaper. The Sunday edition has the highest penetration rate (72%) of any Sunday newspaper in the top 50 U.S. markets. The daily edition has the third highest penetration rate (49%) of any daily newspaper in the top 50 U.S. markets. The paper has a daily circulation of 240,000 and a Sunday circulation of 425,000.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel also operates three websites. JSOnline.com and OnWisconsin.com generate advertising revenue. PackerInsider.com is a subscription based website.

Over the last three years, both daily circulation and Sunday circulation have decreased by about 1% annually. Full run advertising linage has also fallen by a similar amount; however, after accounting for increases in part run advertising and preprint pieces, it appears there has been no real decrease in total advertising.

The Journal Sentinel generates approximately $230 million in revenue. Advertising accounts for 80% of the Journal Sentinels revenue (the other 20% is circulation revenue). Advertising revenue is somewhat cyclical, and may currently be above normal levels.

Its difficult to value the Journal Sentinel, because JRN places the Journal Sentinel and its community newspapers under one reportable segment. Even if the numbers for the Journal Sentinel were broken out, I would have still have some difficulty coming up with an exact figure, because Im not an expert on newspapers.

Having said that, I cant see how the Journal Sentinel could be worth less than $250 million or more than $500 million. If I had to put a dollar figure on the Journal Sentinel, it would probably be in the 250 $300 million range. Id like to think this is a conservative estimate, but I dont know enough about newspapers to be sure. JRNs failure to break out the numbers for the Journal Sentinel apart from the community newspapers complicates the issue. However, I am quite confident the Journal Sentinel is worth no less than $250 million.

Its even more difficult to value JRNs Journal Community Publishing Group. It consists of 43 community newspapers, 41 shoppers, and 9 niche publications (automotive, boating, etc.). The group generates about $100 million in revenue. I cant value this group apart from the Journal Sentinel, because of the aforementioned lack of disclosure (combining the group with the Journal Sentinel for reporting purposes), my inability to find enough public information on community newspaper businesses, and other such factors.

The best I can do is offer an educated guess as to the combined value of JRNs publishing business. My best guess is that, taken together, the Journal Sentinel and the community newspapers are probably worth somewhere between $300 million and $500 million.

Broadcasting

Journal Communications owns 38 radio stations. The most important of which are: WTMJ-AM Milwaukee, KMXZ-FM Tucson, KFDI-FM Wichita, and KTTS FM Springfield (MO). All four of these stations are number one in their market. JRNs radio stations generate about $80 million in revenue.

Journal Communications owns seven television stations. Almost all of these stations are ranked as one of the top three in their market. Three are NBC affiliates, three are ABC affiliates, and one is a Fox affiliate. JRN owns two stations in Milwaukee, two in Idaho, one in California, one in Michigan, and one in Nevada. Journals TV stations generate about $90 million in revenue.

Again, its too hard for me to value JRNs TV stations and radio stations separately. Taken together, I believe theyre worth somewhere between $250 and $450 million.

Telecommunications

JRN owns a 3,800 mile network in the Great Lakes region. Norlight Telecommunications generates about $150 million in revenue. Im very hesitant to make any attempts to value this division, because I dont understand the telecom business well enough. Having said that, I dont see how it could be worth much less than $350 million.

Miscellaneous

I dont like the printing services and direct marketing business at all. I have no idea how to value them. They do have revenues though; so, they are probably worth something to someone. Revenues from these two businesses exceed $100 million, but they are not very profitable.

Real Estate

JRN owns a surprising amount of unencumbered real estate. For the most part, such properties are closely tied to one of JRNs operating businesses. As long as JRN continues as a going concern, much of the real estate could not be sold. Just to give you some idea of the extent of these properties, it appears JRN owns a little less than two million square feet much of which is in or around Milwaukee. I can not accurately value such real estate. As I said, much of it is closely tied to operating activities. However, buildings in urban areas can sometimes be converted to other uses.

It hardly matters though. Journal Communications is likely to remain a going concern for some time, and as long as it does, it is unlikely to dispose of such assets.

Valuation

So, what is JRN worth? Its hard to say. The current enterprise value is around $1 billion, which is clearly too low. My most conservative estimates for the publishing, broadcasting, and telecom businesses alone add up to $900 million. I think those are very conservative estimates. Using more reasonable estimates, I can not arrive at a value of less than $1.25 billion for JRNs constituent parts. This is true whether I perform an intrinsic value analysis on the entire company, or apply some sort of earnings, sales, or EBITDA multiple to each business separately.

Journal Communications is probably worth somewhere between $1.25 billion and $2 billion. Im quite pessimistic about the newspaper business; therefore, I would lean towards the $1.25 billion figure (which assumes slightly declining revenues). Any sort of revenue growth would dramatically change the valuation. If such growth will occur, JRN is extremely undervalued at these levels. However, Im not sure there will be any growth at all.

Journal Communications voting structure will probably discourage the best course of action: breaking up the company. JRN should spin off the community newspapers, the TV stations, the radio stations, and the telecom business. The printing services and direct marketing businesses should also be disposed of in some way. These are really very different businesses. There are few good reasons for keeping them together, and many good reasons for separating them.

Newspapers, radio, and TV all face different challenges. They need different managers who have complete control over capital allocation and who are compensated based on the performance of their business, not on the performance of a hodge-podge of various media properties. Breaking JRN up will make it easier to manage and will make it easier for current owners to dispose of their shares at more favorable prices should they wish to.

If these businesses traded as five or six different public companies, it is very unlikely their combined market cap would be less than $1 billion. It may not even be necessary for them to be publicly traded. There might be buyers for such properties, if JRNs properties were separated into common sense collections.

But, none of this is likely to happen. Employees control JRN (they maintain control through the ownership of shares with disproportionate voting rights). No one interested in shaking things up will take a stake in this company, because he would be unable to impose his will. I cant imagine management ever embarking on such a sweeping venture without some prodding from the outside.

JRN has almost no downside. Sadly, it doesnt seem to have a lot of upside either. There is a real danger investors will see their returns wither away as the time it takes to realize the value in Journal Communications proves costly. Time is the enemy of the investor who buys this kind of business at this kind of price.

Objectively, I have to admit JRN is undervalued. But, Im not sure its grossly undervalued and I am sure there are better long term investments.

Best ISA | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

9 Places You Can Save Money For Your Family

Comments (0)
January 9, 2010 at 9:32 am

Most families are spending more and more money every year (and not just because the cost of living rose) while also saving less and less. One reason is that few household managers spend much time reviewing expenses and expenditures to find ways they can save money. However almost every family has places where costs can be cut and pennies can be pinched — and if those freed up funds are then used to pay down debt and save for the future it could have a dramatic impact on their quality of life.

Food is one big area where many families could be more thrifty. Families spend an average of $2,434 on food away from home, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. If you (and your spouse and your children) eat lunch out every day of the week then try brown-bagging at least one of those days. If just one of you does it you may save up to $400 a year and if you can double or triple that savings you could finance a family vacation with it.

Another major expense is your home. When was the last time you looked at refinancing? Can you find a lower interest rate? Can you renegotiate to a shorter time frame? Even if you can’t change your mortgage payment you may be able to pay a bit extra each month which over time will help pay down your mortgage faster. Also, don’t overlook your utilities. There are ways to save in this area as well including updating your insulation and weather stripping, keeping up-to-date with maintenance and cleaning of your furnace and air conditioner or using a programmable thermostat to take advantage of those times when your house is empty or the family is asleep.

Transportation is another major expense for many families. Not only are vehicles expensive to buy but also to maintain and operate especially with gasoline prices at such high levels. Is carpooling an option for any members of the family on at least a part-time basis? Make sure to combine errands and trips to cut down on your travel and save money when buying gasoline by taking advantage of special programs and discounts and remaining vigilant about gas prices. In addition, following a regular maintenance schedule and proper tire inflation can also help you achieve maximum gas mileage for your vehicle.

Choosing your bank wisely can be another way to save money. Make sure the bank you use offers free (or at least low cost) checking as well as electronic bill-paying. Electronic bill-paying and a debit card can cut down on your need to use checks and postage which will save you in the long run as well as help you better manage payments so you will avoid fees, penalties, and higher interest rates.

Cutting your credit card costs can be another major savings. This means making sure you are using the best possible credit card with a low interest rate and low or no annual fee. Shop around until you find your perfect match and don’t forget to cancel and cut up those rejected suitors.

Health care is not really an area where you can cut expenses but you can save money by taking advantage of special offers and programs. For example, many employers offer a Flexible Spending Account where you can save money before taxes for out-of-pocket medical expenses for prescription and nonprescription drugs, dental expenses, and eye care.

Tuning up your insurance policies can also help you save money. When did you last compare rates for your home, your vehicles, and yourself? Some other ways to cut costs are to raise your deductible level or using the same company for multiple coverage (your home and vehicles). When you are shopping around make sure to give your current company a shot at keeping you. Sometimes they can offer a better rate too.

Another major expense for many families is the cost of communication including local and long distance phone service, cell phones, cable or satellite television, and Internet access. Review your expenditures and cut out the services you don’t need. Can some of these expenses be bundled to save money? Are there better plans for your needs?

When looking to save money it is important to become an aggressive shopper. The Internet makes it possible today to compare prices and product reviews while not spending a lot of time and money driving from store to store. Any big ticket item (and that includes your weekly groceries, cleaning products and health and beauty aids) deserves a closer study.

Over the next, month take time to review your family expenses and expenditures in each of these nine areas. Making a few alterations in your family’s spending habits will soon make a difference in the overall household budget. You can raise your family’s quality of life by making just a few changes in your monthly budget.

Best ISA | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

5 Great Reasons To Refinance

Comments (0)
January 4, 2010 at 3:45 pm

There are many great reasons to refinance. With lower cost, adjustable rate, and 0-down options, traditional loan programs like 30-year or 15-year fixed rate mortgages don’t always allow us to meet our financial goals. Today, even reducing your mortgage interest rate a little can save you big over the life of your home loan. Take a look below at 5 great reasons to refinance.

1. Lower Your Monthly Payment
If you plan to live in your home for a few years, it may make sense to pay a point or two to decrease your interest rate and overall payment. Over the long run, you will have paid for the cost of the mortgage refinance with the monthly savings. On the other hand, if you plan on moving in the near future, you may not be in your home long enough to recover the refinancing costs. Calculating the break-even point before you decide to refinance can help determine whether it makes sense.

2. Switch From an Adjustable Rate to a Fixed Rate Mortgage
Adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) can provide lower initial monthly payments for those who are willing to risk upward market adjustments. They’re also ideal if you don’t plan to own your property for more than a few years. However, if you have made your house a permanent home, you may want to swap your adjustable rate for a 15-, 20- or 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Your interest may be higher than with an ARM, but you have the confidence of knowing what your payment will be every month for the rest of your loan term.

3. Escape Balloon Payment Programs
Like adjustable rate mortgage programs, balloon programs are great when you want lower rates and lower initial monthly payments. However, if you still own the property at the end of the fixed rate term (usually 5 or 7 years), the entire balance of your mortgage is due to the lender. If you are in a balloon program, you can easily switch over into a new adjustable rate mortgage or fixed rate mortgage.

4. Remove Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI)
Zero or Low down payment options allow homeowners to purchase homes with less than 20% down. Unfortunately, they also usually require private mortgage insurance, which is designed to protect the lender from loan default. As the value of your home increases and the balance on your home decreases, you may be eligible to remove your PMI with a mortgage refinance loan.

5. Cash In on Your Home’s Equity
Your home is a great resource for extra cash. Like most homes, yours has probably increased in value, and that gives you the ability to take some of that cash and put it to good use. Pay off credit cards, make home improvements, pay tuition, replace your current car, or even take a long-overdue vacation. With a cash-out mortgage refinance transaction, it’s easy. And it’s even tax deductible.

Log in